Juniper Researchs latest 6G outlook lands a specific number on a technology that isnt scheduled to be finalised yet: it expects the number of 6G connections to reach 4.6 million in late 2029, with the US and South Korea leading early deployment.
Looking further ahead, Juniper forecasts China will emerge as the biggest 6G market by 2030, while a separate Juniper projection sees total 6G connections climbing to 2.9 billion by 2035.
6G connection projections through 2029 and beyond
In its 6G forecasting, Juniper Research predicts 4.6 million 6G connections in late 2029, and the same outlook places the US and South Korea at the front of that early connection curve.
By 2030, Junipers market ranking shifts: China is expected to emerge as the biggest 6G market, with the US and Canada following. In that same ranking, South Korea is forecast to slip to sixth place behind Japan and the UK, which are put in fourth and fifth respectively. Saudi Arabia, France and Qatar are listed as completing the top nine 6G markets by 2030.
Juniper also projects that by 2035 there will be 2.9 billion 6G connections.
Where Juniper expects early commercialisation to spread
Junipers view of early 6G commercialisation is not limited to the same set of countries it names as leaders in connection counts. It says some countries will lead early commercialisation of 6G, while othersGermany, India and the UAEare also expected to play key roles in 6G development and commercialisation.
At the industry level, the article frames this start as happening before finalisation is complete: it says chatter about 6G began in earnest at this years Mobile World Congress (MWC).
Commercial timing pressure: spectrum, NTN, and the 2030 IMT decision
Junipers forecast arrives against an ITU planning timeline that the article describes as pencilling 2030 for a final decision on what technology constitutes IMT-2030.
On the technology ingredient list, Juniper points to Terahertz spectrum, AI-native networks, integrated sensing and communication (ISAC), and seamless non-terrestrial networking (NTN) as key components. It further says these elements will enable a transition from connectivity-focused networks to integrated, intelligent infrastructure supporting the next generation of digital and industrial systems.
Even with those building blocks identified, the article argues that predicting 6G connections by 2029 seems premature, partly because the current ITU roadmap is still targeting the IMT-2030 definition decision in 2030.
6G needs new revenue models, Juniper says
Junipers view of 6G isnt just technical. In a warning quoted in the article, Juniper says the shift to 6G requires new revenue streamswithout them, it argues, the economic case for large-scale infrastructure upgrades becomes increasingly difficult to sustain.
It also describes 6G as a transition from connectivity as a commodity to connectivity as a platform for value creation.
Junipers stated requirements for that transition include deeper integration between network capabilities and digital services, achieved by supporting programmable networks, integrated compute and real-time data processing.