CCS Insight says non-terrestrial networks have moved from proprietary systems to early commercial direct-to-device services in dozens of countries within a few years. Luke Pearce said the NTN market is being shaped by constant demand for new features, operators’ difficulty monetizing 5G, consumer expectations of ubiquitous coverage, lower launch costs, and the 3GPP standardization of satellite access (via rcrwireless.com).
Pearce also said that supplemental coverage from space uses existing 4G waveforms and operators’ own spectrum, while Release 17 narrowband NTN uses dedicated mobile satellite spectrum in L and S band.
Two NTN paths are already in use
Pearce said narrowband NTN is already used for tracking sensors and messaging over existing GEO satellites or a limited number of LEO satellites. He said complete LEO constellations running NR-NTN could expand satellite services into streaming, real-time applications and richer enterprise services.
The split matters because the current narrowband model is already serving a constrained set of use cases, while the fuller NR-NTN path still depends on new infrastructure and devices. That is the gap the sector is trying to close.
The numbers behind the rollout
Pearce cited GSA figures showing more than 23 direct-to-device services launched, 27 in trial, and 73 more planned for later in 2026 or beyond. CCS Insight data shows more than 16 million subscribers now have access to satellite services.
He also said less than half of UK consumers would pay a small fee for satellite services, and around 47% of respondents in a separate Opensignal poll said they would use direct-to-device services if available but only if they did not have to pay more. Pearce said the business case for satellite services breaks down in low-ARPU markets such as Brazil, Indonesia, and India.
Regulatory alignment is part of the commercial model
Stanislas-Boumier said regulatory challenges are better viewed as opportunities for modernization than as obstacles. She said the three regulatory priorities are greater international harmonization of spectrum policy, more efficient and transparent authorization, and continuous dialogue between industry and policymakers.
For Europe, she proposed four pillars including championing global standards and closer cooperation between the space and telecom communities. The point is not lighter regulation; it is regulation that can keep pace with cross-border satellite services without forcing each market into its own dead end.
Droam Perspective
For satellite and mobile operators, the commercial question is no longer whether NTN exists, but which use case can clear a payment threshold. The current base is still small relative to the ambition of broad mobile-satellite service, and the low-ARPU warning around Brazil, Indonesia and India is the part to watch.
The regulatory side is equally relevant: harmonized spectrum policy and faster authorization are now part of the deployment path, not just the policy backdrop. Without that, the market stays split between narrowband utility and a broader broadband promise that has yet to pay for itself.