Nokia fell to fourth in private 5G vendor rankings, while STL Partners lifted its 2030 revenue forecast for private 4G and 5G to $22 billion. The numbers land in the same Mobile & Wireless market, but they point in different directions: one incumbent losing status, the other seeing a much larger addressable base.
Nokia’s ranking slip came alongside its ECE sale plan
Omdia analyst Pablo Tomasi said Nokia has effectively demoted itself by putting its ECE campus unit up for sale. The article frames Nokia as having previously been regarded as the leading private 5G vendor worldwide, which makes the drop to fourth a sharper change than a routine ranking shuffle.
STL Partners’ forecast stretches private 4G and 5G to $22 billion
STL Partners said global revenue from private 4G and 5G will rise from $2.3 billion in 2025 to $22 billion in 2030. The analysis implies a 58% compound annual growth rate over the period. STL Partners also said manufacturing will remain the largest vertical in 2030.
Logistics is the fastest-growing vertical, but the pitch is still practical
STL Partners said logistics will be the fastest-growing vertical, with an 86% compound annual growth rate. The article says logistics customers want easier off-the-shelf solutions, which is the kind of buying preference that usually favors packaged deployments over heavy custom work.
Read for Mobile & Wireless strategy teams
For Mobile & Wireless teams, the immediate signal is that private 5G is still being priced as a growth market, even as vendor leadership shifts around it. The size call and the vertical split give operators and suppliers a cleaner view of where the commercial opportunity is being placed: manufacturing at scale, logistics at speed, and applications above the network as the larger value pool.